GF the purchase of real estate credit limit the impact on the property market volume and price polic-乃々果花

GF: the real estate credit limit restriction policy impact on the property market volume and price of sina finance App: Live on-line blogger to guide the purchase of new shares: the stock market is the most simple way to pick up the money from WeChat public number: GF real estate team this paper mainly answers two questions: the purchase of credit limit policies, the new volume effect how? When the policy tightening, nominal housing prices began to adjust? The purchase limit, a negative impact on the volume of loans will be more than 10-11 years since 05 years, observation of residential sales changes area, has experienced 4 small cycles, respectively is 06-07-08 years, 09-10-11 years, 12-13-14 years, and we are experiencing 15-16-17. The upper limit of a large-scale purchase of credit in 10-11, we have statistics of the 30 transactions in the city before and after the change of policy tightening, can very clearly see: most of the city for 11 years (year purchase) year turnover decline in 10 years, the overall rate of -16%, in the 12 year (the purchase of second years) that part of the supply of adequate and fundamentals of good city turnover up 10 years has been repaired, the overall repair rate of +7%. However, we believe that the negative impact of the policy tightening on turnover will be more than 10-11 years, there are three reasons: first, housing demand is not as good as five years ago. Under the economic growth, the pace is lower than five years ago, while the population conditions, the proportion of labor age population decline, the proportion of aging population continues to rise (more than 65 years old population accounted for more than 10%), China has passed the highest point of demographic dividend, housing demand continues to decline. Secondly, the current small cycle demand overdraft more. Since the end of 14 to cut interest rates drop, the transaction has been maintained for 18 consecutive months high scenery. At the same time, the rapid rise in housing prices in hot cities has further increased the repayment burden of mortgage loans. Even without the introduction of regulatory policies, after the demand is too fast, the transaction will naturally fall. Third, the current round of regulation and control policy is more accurate. The main demand for the small cycle is, on the one hand, from the local improved demand, on the one hand from the investment demand. And the tightening of the current policy, in the purchase level, special emphasis on restrictions on non local residents purchase houses, thereby hitting the investment demand; in the loan limit level, especially the two suites identified standards and down payment ratio, which will have a negative impact on the local improvement needs. Fourth, the volume of the regulated city plays an important role. We consider 17 limited loan cities with complete historical transaction data. This year, the 17 cities of the residential area accounted for more than 20% of the country, turnover accounted for more than 40%, and the two accounted for the data in 11 years, respectively, only 10%, 24%. According to our estimates, 17 years relative to 16 years, the 17 hand housing transaction area will decline by 24%, affected by this, the country’s first hand housing turnover will decline by 9%. Two, two questions: does the demand have spillover effect? If the currency is relatively loose, will the turnover drop? 1, hot city restriction theory

广发地产:本轮限购限贷政策对楼市的量价影响 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 新股申购:股市最简单捡钱方式   来源微信公众号:广发地产团队   本文主要回答两个问题:此次限购限贷政策出台后,对于新房成交量影响如何?政策收紧后,名义房价何时开始调整?   一、此次限购限贷对成交量的负面影响将更甚于10-11年   自05年以来,观察一手住宅成交面积变化情况,经历了4个小周期,分别是06-07-08年、09-10-11年、12-13-14年、以及我们正在经历的15-16-17年。上一次大规模限购限贷发生在10-11年,我们统计了30个城市在政策收紧前后的成交变化,可以非常清楚地看到:绝大部分城市11年(限购当年)成交同比10年下降,整体幅度为-16%,到了12年(限购第二年),部分供给充足且基本面较好的城市成交同比10年已有修复,整体修复幅度为+7%。   但是,我们认为,此次政策收紧对于成交量的负面影响将更甚于10-11年,原因有三:   首先,住房内生需求不如五年前。经济增速下台阶低于五年前,而人口条件方面,劳动力年龄人口占比下降,老龄人口占比不断上升(65岁以上人口占比超10%),我国已过了人口红利的最高点,住房内生需求继续下降。   其次,本轮小周期需求透支较多。自14年年末降息降准以来,成交已经连续18个月保持高景气度。与此同时,热点城市房价的快速上涨,进一步加重了居民家庭按揭贷款的还款负担。即使不出台调控政策,需求过快透支之后,成交也会自然回落。   第三,本轮调控政策打击更为精准。本轮小周期的主力需求,一方面来自本地改善型需求,一方面来自投资需求。而本轮政策收紧,在限购层面特别强调限制非本地户籍居民购房,从而打击了投资需求;在限贷层面,提高了特别是二套房的认定标准和首付比例,这将对本地改善型需求产生负面影响。   第四,被调控城市成交量影响举足轻重。我们考虑有完整历史成交数据的17个限购限贷城市。今年以来,这17个城市的一手住宅成交面积占全国的比重超20%、成交金额占比超40%,而这两个占比数据在11年的时候分别仅为10%、24%。根据我们的测算,17年相对于16年,这17个一手住宅成交面积将同比下降24%,受此影响,全国一手住宅成交面积将同比下降9%。   二、两个问题:需求是否有溢出效应?货币相对宽松成交量是否会回落?   1、热点城市限购限贷,并不意味着需求会溢出至三四线城市   我国住房市场目前总量平衡,但区域差异明显。房地产市场进入下半场,其特征一方面是改善型需求为主,另一方面是城市之间差异显著拉大,其根本原因在于人口流动,核心城市限购限贷并不会改变这一趋势。   从数据上看,10-11年在核心城市限购限贷之后,三四线城市的一手住房成交量也没有如“溢出效应”所隐含的大规模上升。我们统计的22个有成交历史数据的三四线城市显示,11年(热点城市限购当年)同比10年整体下降13%,且22个城市中有15个同比下降,12年同比10年整体下降3%,表现不及17个重点城市(修复幅度+7%)。   2、货币政策相对宽松,并不意味着热点城市成交量不会回落   值得注意的是,目前我国的货币政策相对于五年前较为宽松。而10-11年的调控政策收紧是伴随着货币政策收紧(加息),因而有观点认为,在利率处于低位的情况下,成交量未必会回落。实际上,即便在基准利率不变时,银行按揭贷款实际利率边际的变化也能影响成交量。进入四季度,随着财政政策发力,以及央行近期表态,实际利率边际宽松的可能性不大,因此我们认为,未来按揭贷款实际利率向下的可能性极小,甚至有小幅向上的可能。   三、部分核心城市房价短期面临调整,长期仍有向上空间   从过去三轮小周期来看,城市名义房价(一手住房)的短期变化(1年之内)与库存去化周期负相关。因此,调控政策收紧之后,成交量回落而库存去化周期拉长之后,名义房价环比将会出现向下调整。我们基于成交回落幅度和库存变化情况,参照历史,对调控政策已经收紧的14个重点城市(统计范围内有18个城市,但其中4个城市没有可跟踪的库存数据)未来的房价短期调整时间点进行预测,详见下表:   从中长期来看,我们认为,我国核心城市的名义房价未来仍将随着这些城市的经济总量和居民收入的增长而稳步攀升。我们在今年3月份的报告中已经指出,全世界各个国家或地区的核心城市,在没有外部冲击且经济持续增长的背景下,名义房价在过去40年的时间内都是涨多跌少。同时,我们也最新统计了世界核心城市的名义房价绝对值水平(按照最新汇率折算成美元 平米),从这个角度来看,我国部分核心城市名义房价中长期来看仍有继续上行的空间。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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